Friday, July 25, 2008

OIL – Only In Longs??



With virtually every central banker and ruling political leader across the globe losing sleep over the vicious phenomenon of inflation and it’s seeming stubbornness never to subside, it seems – (or that’s what the charts say )…..that it just may be time to stop worrying about the biggest contributor of it, namely crude oil…..

So has OIL finally TOPPED??

Could seem like a million dollar question but recent price action gives us sufficient reason to believe that it has….at least for the time being.

As evidenced in the Chart above, there has been 2 consecutive trend line breaches coinciding with a reversal bar confirmation and a double top.

WE could in all probability witness a short covering rally in the next couple of days, that could potentially target anywhere between 132 to 135. There could be an extended spurt to 138 also. However if this recovery does not sustain above 138-140, the next leg of correction may be in the offing – a fall that could be targeting 105-110 levels.



Implications for our very own Indian Rupee…..



The rupee could retrace back to a 42.74 – 42.84 .If price action does not sustain above 42.85, the next round of correction could target anywhere between 41.25 and 41.50.



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